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Sensex at 50,000: How to invest?

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Sensex is above 50K. Nifty is almost 15K.

In isolation, these numbers may mean nothing. However, the current levels are almost double the 52-week lows formed during the last year.  A massive wealth creation over the past year. It does not happen very often that you double your money in just one year, that too by investing in bellwether indices such as Nifty and Sensex.

By the way, did you participate in this rally?

You could have been scared and sold during the market turmoil or during the initial run-up. Or you could have sensed an opportunity and invested heavily and were rewarded. In hindsight, you can say that investing more would have been a good choice. However, in real time, the decision to invest after the economy had come to a grinding halt did not seem an obvious choice.

Well, the past is past. You cannot change it.

What to do now?

Now that the markets have run up to all-time highs, what should you do now?

Sensex at 50K: How do you approach this?

The markets keep making all-time highs on a regular basis. If they were not, none of us would be investing in equity markets. You cannot earn good returns if the markets do not keep hitting new highs.  So, 52-week highs or all-time highs are not reasons enough to go slow. In fact, we have seen in an earlier post that investing at 52-week highs has historically been more rewarding than investing at 52-week lows. Not intuitive but such are the results.

Coming back. Sensex at 50K. What should you do?

Should you continue to invest? OR

Should you stop putting in further money? OR

Should you take some or all your money off the table?

Given that the Nifty PE ratio is hovering around 40, you surely need to be cautious. There are reasons that you can ascribe to such high PE levels. For instance, Q1FY2021 earnings were wiped off due to the lockdown. OR the Indian economy is booming or expected to do very well. OR We should look at consolidated PE levels and not standalone levels. OR PE is not the right valuation measure.

Fair enough. All these points have some merit.

However, we can always find reasons to justify almost everything. Given that all kinds of stocks are running up and the valuation measures are at all-time highs (and that has meant lower future returns in the past), there is a reason to be circumspect.

A note of caution: The standalone PE breached 30 for the first time in July 2020. A completely new territory for us. We had never seen PE of 30 before that. Had you taken off your money from the markets at that time, you would have missed 35-40% rally in the markets. So, markets keep bowling googlies. Always keep this in mind.

Diversify. Decide asset allocation. Rebalance

Diversification is NOT about having all your money in the best performing asset all the time.

Diversification is about NOT having all your money in the worst performing asset at any time.

By bringing assets with low or negative correlation in the portfolio, you can reduce portfolio losses and enhance investment discipline (and that’s more important than many of us think). You can add domestic equity, international equity, fixed income, real estate, and gold to the portfolio.

Being in a single asset at any time is just too risky for most of us.

Now that we have decided to be in multiple assets, how much should you allocate?

You should work with an asset allocation approach. And stick to it.

There is no right asset allocation for everyone. A young investor might be comfortable with 70% allocation to equities. On the other hand, a senior citizen may not be able to digest more than 30% equity exposure.

The right asset allocation for you depends on many factors including your risk-taking ability and your risk appetite.

I did an exercise to find the best asset allocation over the last 20 years but that is just an excel based analysis. Take it with a pinch of salt.

You can work with asset allocation ranges

Let us say you decide that you will keep equity allocation between 50% and 60% of your portfolio.  50% and 60% are random numbers. It could have been a different combination.

When you are comfortable about equity market valuation, you can tend to be towards the higher end of the allocation range.

When you are not comfortable about valuations, you can tend to be towards the lower end of the allocation range.

Accordingly, you can rebalance your portfolio at regular intervals.

You can either rebalance your portfolio to move the asset allocation within the target range.

OR

You can adjust your incremental investments so that you move towards the target asset allocation range.

If you leave decision-making to your guts, you will likely mess up

You will either sell too much too soon. OR buy too much too late.

Had I left it to my guts, I would have reduced equity positions sharply in the middle of last year (August-September 2020). While it may still prove to be a good choice over the long term, it would have given me a lot of pain in the short term (I can say that now). Our biases will complicate our investments. And that is never good.

While it is impossible to remove biases from our investment decision-making, we can certainly reduce the impact by working with some rules. And asset allocation is one such rule.

For most of us, over the long term, rule-based investments (decision-making) will do a far better job than gut-based decision making.

Selling all your equity investments (just because you feel markets have gone up too much) and waiting for a correction is likely to be counterproductive over the long term.

Similarly, increasing equity exposure sharply (after a market correction) can backfire. Further correction may await. Or the market may stay rangebound for a few years. This is an even bigger problem when you are talking about individual stocks (and not diversified indices). You may well end up averaging your stock down to zero. Of course, it can be an immensely rewarding experience too, but you need to appreciate the risks. And when you let your guts decide, the risk appreciation usually takes a backseat.

Instead, if you just tweak your asset allocation (or rebalance) to the target levels, you are never completely in or out of the markets. You do not miss the upside. Thus, you will never feel left out (No FOMO or Fear Of Missing Out).  And corrections do not crush your portfolio completely either. You will not be too scared during a market fall. Thus, it is also easier to manage emotions. And this prevents you from making bad investment choices.

All this gyan. What should I do now?

I do not know where the markets are headed. I do not know whether we will see 60K first on the Sensex or 40K first. Or whether we will ever see 40K on the Sensex again.

We will certainly see 60K in the future. Whether it happens in the next few months or the next few years (or after many years) is a question.

Now, if 50K on the Sensex looks expensive to you, then you need to check your current equity allocation.

If your equity allocation has moved far ahead of your target allocation, then there is a case for rebalancing the portfolio.  Your target allocation was 50%. The current allocation is 60%. You can sell some equity (take some money off the table) and bring allocation closer to target levels. I am not in favour of taking equity allocation to 0% no matter how expensive the markets may seem to you. I am also not in favour of stopping SIPs. Prefer to sell existing investments instead (to get back to target levels) unless tax considerations discourage me from doing so.

If your equity allocation is not far away from the target allocation, you can simply stay put or continue to invest.

About asset allocation and rebalancing, there are no best rules.

You can work with very crisp asset allocation targets. Say 60% equity allocation. You can rebalance to target levels every 6 months or 12 months. OR you rebalance when equity allocation breaches a certain threshold (say, higher than 65% or lower than 55%). And yes, do not rebalance too frequently.

OR

Work with asset allocation ranges. Be at the lower end of the range when the markets look expensive and be at the higher end of the range when the markets look cheap. This approach gives more flexibility. If you feel the markets are expensive now, move towards the lower end of the equity allocation range.

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Photo by George Drachas on Unsplash

Disclaimer: Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market is subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Note: This post is for education purpose alone and is NOT investment advice. This is not a recommendation to invest or NOT invest in any product. The securities, instruments, or indices quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. My views may be biased, and I may choose not to focus on aspects that you consider important. Your financial goals may be different. You may have a different risk profile. You may be in a different life stage than I am in. Hence, you must NOT base your investment decisions based on my writings. There is no one-size-fits-all solution in investments. What may be a good investment for certain investors may NOT be good for others. And vice versa. Therefore, read and understand the product terms and conditions and consider your risk profile, requirements, and suitability before investing in any investment product or following an investment approach.

11 thoughts on “Sensex at 50,000: How to invest?”

  1. There some asset allocated Passive FOF from Motilal oswal, It seems be a single fund which takes care of AA of multi assets and will do rebalancing in year or so. Only caveats is, its like debt fund taxation and Funds will be chosen by FM. The asset allocation seems be fixed . If i choose this type of fund, all my work will be outsourced and even there is no tax for rebalancing activity. Share your views.

    Now current AA is Equity : Debt 50%:50%, If i want to include GOLD and International funds ,Should i reduce it from Equity or Debt portion to accommodate 10% of International and 10% of Gold to existing portfolio.

    1. Deepesh Raghaw

      Hi Devan,
      I like the concept very much. It is very simple.
      The only problem is that their Scheme information document does not commit to this strict asset allocation. Hence, nothing stops them from changing the allocation based on the outlook.

      Personally, I am ok with debt fund taxation. With equity being taxed at 10%, there is not much difference anyways.

      1. They replied in Twitter because of filling it’s mentioned in SID. But they will follow static AA for the funds. Regarding gold allocation, is it be treated like equity or debt. Because I need to accommodate my existing portfolio which is currently 50:50 equity:debt.

        1. Hi Devan,
          I didn’t find this in SID. They gave pretty flexible ranges there.
          Having said that, I quite like the concept. Such funds are truly hybrid funds.

          1. Yes SID mention flexible ranges of each asset class. But in the video and presentation ,they clearly states that its going to be fixed asset allocation and not following any ranges.

          2. Deepesh Raghaw

            Hi Devan,
            You have to take that call.
            Good part is that, as an investor, you are free to take that call.
            As an advisor, I have to be doubly sure.

  2. Hi Deepesh,
    While there is a lot of talk about how equity doubled in the past year, we had to also consider how debt returns almost vanished in the past year. Most people including me didn’t realize the debt fund returns were going down to 3% through the year. And even today if you don’t invest substantial % in equity even for a conservative investor overall returns will be very less compared inflation.
    So now time has come to decide on equity investment keeping in mind what FD and Debt fund returns are like.

    1. Deepesh Raghaw

      Hi Pradeep,
      Yes, low yields in fixed income globally may be one of the reasons behind the recent surge.
      I do not completely agree with your input about fixed income returns.
      About FD and debt MF returns, +4% is still better than -10%.
      Inflation has been benign in India over the past couple of years and much of the developed world over the last decade. This has allowed central banks to work with lower rates.
      Once inflation rears its head (we don’t know when that will happen) or yields rise (for any reason, including massive borrowing program), things may change.

  3. Deepash!
    I always enjoy reading your bolg posts but never took any action. I think, its time for some action.
    My mutual fund investments have almost doubled. I started investing in 2014-2015 and I had a 10-15 years of the horizon. But, now I fear that I might lose the 40%-50% return if this bubble burst and I feel it will. But at the same time, I don’t want to quit the mutual fund market as you rightly said. So, is it a good idea to park the profit (the return 40%-50%) to a debt fund? for example, one of my fund’s initial investments of 1,00,000 has now become 1,95,000 so should I park the surplus 95000 in a debt fund? Looking forward to your advice.

    1. Deepesh Raghaw

      Hi Shaan,
      Thanks for the feedback.
      Never easy to answer such questions.
      Purely from the point of view of managing your emotions, will suggest you sell a something (if not 90-95K) and bring to debt. Say, you can sell 20-30K.
      Hope this help.

  4. Thank you Deepesh!
    Your advice does help but at the same time I get an impression that it’s better not to sell and carry on with profit in the equity mutual fund. Is it ok to stay with the profit ?

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